MUMBAI, 13 Jan (Commoditiescontrol): Wheat markets experienced gains across all major trading hubs lastweek, driven by mixed supply and demand factors.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March wheat contract edged up by 1.5 cents (0.28%), while Kansas City’s March contract posted a more robust gain of 12.75 cents (2.37%). Minneapolis followed with a 6.5 cent (1.13%) increase, rounding out a week of modest progress.
Recent crop progress reports revealed challenges for winter wheat in key states. Kansas reported a 6% decline in its “good-to-excellent” ratings, now at 47%, compared to mid-December. Similarly, Oklahoma’s ratings dropped by 3%, settling at 45% since the last report in late November. These figures reflect growing concerns about crop quality amid unfavorable weather conditions.
As of December 1, U.S. wheat stocks reached 1.569 billion bushels, an increase of 148 million bushels compared to the previous year. The USDA’s latest WASDE report showed only minor adjustments, with imports and seed use rising slightly, pushing ending stocks to 798 million bushels.
Meanwhile, winter wheat seedings saw an uptick, with total acreage climbing to 34.115 million acres—725,000 acres more than last year. This increase could provide a cushion for future supplies, though much will depend on crop performance and weather conditions.
Despite the positive supply outlook, wheat exports faced a significant slowdown. The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report revealed the lowest marketing-year export figure yet, with just 111,309 metric tons shipped during the week ending January 2. Current export commitments total 17.192 million metric tons (MMT), equivalent to 74% of the USDA’s annual forecast but trailing behind the average pace of 82% for this period.
November’s wheat exports, however, offered a glimmer of hope, reaching 1.42 MMT (52 million bushels)—a four-year high for the month. Yet the recent export weakness suggests challenges ahead as global competition intensifies.
As the wheat market navigates mixed signals, traders are balancing improved stock levels and higher acreage against declining crop conditions and lagging export sales. The coming weeks will be critical, with future crop progress reports and export trends set to shape the market's direction.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)