New Delhi, September 3 (CommoditiesControl): Maize prices have shown a steady to weak trend in major centers over the past 2-3 sessions. This trend is largely attributed to the government's recent decision allowing ethanol producers to use rice for ethanol production, which has dampened market sentiments. Additionally, increased maize sowing, which has reached 87.3 million hectares as of August 30—an increase of 5.1%—is contributing to upward price resistance.
Recent government notifications permit distilleries to participate in electronic auctions and adjust rice prices for the period from August to October 2024, in line with weekly auction rates. A maximum of 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) of rice can be allocated for ethanol production, with an estimated 6 million tons potentially being used for this purpose during the ESY 2024-25 season. As of July 31, 2024, maize diversion to ethanol stood at 4.4 million tons for the ESY 2023-24 season.
In Uttar Pradesh, maize prices have decreased by INR 5-10 per quintal, closing at INR 2,500 per quintal. This decline reflects expectations of slower purchasing volumes from ethanol producers following the new government policy. Despite this, maize supplies remain significantly deficient, with mandi arrivals in Uttar Pradesh falling to 5-10% of peak levels.
Maize prices are expected to recover in the near future, driven by anticipated robust poultry demand. However, significant price increases are unlikely, with expected rises limited to INR 25-50 per quintal as buyers remain cautious and anticipate the new crop.
In Bihar, maize continues to be purchased by poultry, maintaining a steady supply of high-quality Gulabbagh maize. Currently, maize prices in Tamil Nadu are around INR 2,900 per quintal, with prices in Tuticorin hovering around INR 2,850 per quintal, and resellers offering between INR 2,900 and INR 2,910 per quintal.
In Maharashtra, some buyers have become hesitant to purchase at higher prices, with potential delays in harvesting if rains persist in key producing areas. If no significant delays occur, maize prices are unlikely to rise more than INR 20-40 per quintal, as buyers are expected to avoid paying higher rates while anticipating the new crop.
High rainfall resulting from a deep depression has adversely affected maize crops in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Maharashtra. Flooding has submerged approximately 2 lakh acres of crops in Andhra Pradesh, with significant damage reported to chillies, cotton, paddy, and pulses. This damage could support maize prices in the medium term, given the anticipated elevated demand during the 2024-25 season.