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USDA revises 2024-25 global cotton ending stocks estimate upwards to 83.49 million bales

12 Jun 2024 11:21 pm
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NEW DELHI, June 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest June 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised upwards its forecast for global ending stocks in 2024-25 at 83.49 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 83.01 million bales projected in May 2024.

In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased, with world trade unchanged. As a result, world ending stocks are projected 480,000 bales higher than in May at 83.5 million.

The forecast for production is raised 90,000 bales based solely on higher area and yield in Burma. Consumption is 80,000 bales higher with increases in Vietnam and Burma offsetting reductions elsewhere. Revisions to the 2023/24 world balance sheet include higher beginning stocks and production, with reduced trade and consumption, raising ending stocks approximately 500,000 bales.

The 2024/25 U.S. cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month. Projected production, domestic use and exports are unchanged.

The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is down 4 cents from the May forecast to 70 cents per pound following a decline in new-crop cotton futures.

Ending stocks are 400,000 bales higher at 4.1 million, or 28 percent of use. Revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 500,000-bale reduction in exports to 11.8 million based on the slowing pace of export shipments, a 50,000-bale increase in domestic use, and a 450,000-bale gain in ending stocks.

USDA- 2024-25 (June 2024) vs 2023-24 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

WORLD (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock- 80.97/80.67
Production-119.14/113.78
Import- 44.95/43.52
Consumption-116.94/113.07
Export- 44.95/44.28
Ending Stock- 83.49/80.97

INDIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-11.47/11.32
Production-25/26.20
Import-1.50/0.95
Consumption-25.20/24.80
Export-1.90/2.20
Ending Stock-10.87/11.47

US (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.85/4.25
Production-16/12.07
Import 0.01/0.01
Consumption-1.90/1.85
Export-13/11.80
Ending Stock-4.10/2.85

CHINA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock- 41.01/37.28
Production- 27/27.50
Import- 12/14.80
Consumption- 39/38.50
Ending Stock- 40.93/41.01

BRAZIL (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock- 3.09/4.01
Production- 16.70/14.57
Consumption- 3.30/3.10
Export- 12.50/12.40
Ending Stock- 4/3.09

PAKISTAN (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.63/1.53
Production-6.50/6.70
Import- 3.70/2.70
Consumption-9.80/9.20
Export-0.05/0.10
Ending Stock-1.98/1.63

BANGLADESH (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.59/1.73
Production-0.16/0.16
Import-8/7.40
Consumption-8/7.70
Ending Stock-1.74/1.59

VIETNAM (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.05/1.05
Import-7.10/6.90
Consumption-7.10/6.90
Ending Stock-1.05/1.05

AUSTRALIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-4.15/4.78
Production-5/5
Export-5.40/5.80
Ending Stock- 3.91/4.15

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)


       
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