U.S. Wheat Supplies Decline as Global Production and Trade Set to Increase in 2024/25

MUMBAI, 13 Aug (Commoditiescontrol): The U.S. wheat outlook for the 2024/25 marketing year indicates tighter supplies, driven by a decline in production, while global wheat markets are expected to see increased production and trade, along with slightly lower ending stocks.

U.S. wheat production is forecasted to drop by 26 million bushels, totaling 1,982 million bushels. This reduction is largely due to a decrease in harvested area, which has been lowered by 0.9 million acres to 37.9 million acres. Despite this, the average yield per acre is projected to rise slightly to 52.2 bushels per acre. By wheat class, Hard Red Spring, Durum, and Soft Red Winter wheat production are expected to decline, while Hard Red Winter and White wheat are set to increase.

Domestic use of U.S. wheat is anticipated to rise by 2 million bushels, primarily due to higher food use, as noted in the recent NASS Flour Millings Products report. Consequently, ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected to decrease by 28 million bushels, bringing total stocks to 828 million bushels. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.

Globally, the wheat outlook for 2024/25 is more positive, with a projected increase in supplies, consumption, and trade. Global wheat supplies are expected to rise by 3.5 million tons to 1,060.6 million tons, driven by larger-than-expected production in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Australia. These gains are expected to offset production declines in the European Union and the United States. EU wheat production is forecasted to decrease by 2.0 million tons to 128.0 million tons, the lowest since the 2020/21 season, due to heavy rainfall in France affecting yield and quality.

Global wheat consumption is projected to reach a record 804.0 million tons, led by increased feed use in the EU, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. World trade is expected to rise by 2.0 million tons to 214.9 million tons, with Australia and Ukraine boosting exports. However, global ending stocks are forecasted to decline slightly by 0.6 million tons to 256.6 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16.

This outlook reflects a complex global wheat market, balancing regional production shifts with varying demand dynamics.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)