Beijing, September 7, 2024 – According to the latest USDA report, China’s oilseed sector is expected to maintain steady production levels in the upcoming marketing year, despite minor fluctuations in planted areas. Soybean production is forecasted to stabilize at 19.6 million metric tons (MMT) across 9.95 million hectares for MY 24/25.
Rapeseed output is also projected to demonstrate resilience with an estimated production of 15.8 MMT, benefiting from slight improvements in yield and acreage. This steadiness is partly due to ongoing governmental support aimed at cushioning the impact of previously declining prices for soybean meal (SBM).
The demand for SBM, essential in livestock feed, is seeing a revival which is expected to increase soybean crushing projections to 99 MMT. This uptick aligns with the gradual moderation in SBM prices, potentially boosting its incorporation into feed blends across China.
The peanut sector is also showing signs of robustness, with expected production holding at 18.1 MMT. The sector's vigor is driven by comparatively high profit margins over other crops, despite recent price volatilities which have since stabilized before the planting season commenced.
Evolving Demand in the Vegetable Oil Market The vegetable oil market is experiencing a shift, with total consumption for food use anticipated to rise to 35.6 MMT in MY 24/25, up from 35.1 MMT in MY 23/24. This growth is fueled by economic upliftment which continues to elevate consumer living standards. Nonetheless, a potential deceleration in consumption growth is on the horizon, influenced by an increasingly health-conscious consumer base and a high level of per capita consumption.
The bakery sector, a significant consumer of vegetable oils, along with stabilized prices, supports the robust demand for soybean oil and other vegetable oils, underpinned by the sector's recovery.
On the international trade front, China’s soybean imports are poised to hold steady at 103 MMT, indicative of a balanced demand for oilseed crushing. The import figures reflect the strong influence of global production rates and competitive pricing, especially given the anticipated substantial outputs from Brazil and Argentina.
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