Mumbai, 11 Dec (Commoditiescontrol): The USDA's December 2024 WASDE report highlights an optimistic outlook for the global soybean market for the 2024/25 season, with projections for increased production, higher exports, and steady demand for soybean meal and oil. These adjustments reflect positive trends across major soybean-producing countries, despite challenges in key consumption areas.
Global soybean production has been raised by 1.7 million metric tons to 427.1 million metric tons for 2024/25. This increase is primarily due to expanded planted areas in Argentina and Bolivia, alongside improved yields in Canada. The United States is expected to maintain its production estimate at 4.46 billion bushels, with an average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month's projection.
Global soybean supply, including beginning stocks, is expected to reach 814.83 million metric tons, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month’s forecast of 813.89 million metric tons. The United States is projected to maintain a steady supply of 4.82 billion bushels, bolstered by production and carryover stocks.
Soybean exports are projected to increase slightly, with global exports for 2024/25 expected to reach 181.97 million metric tons. The United States is forecast to export 1.825 billion bushels, unchanged from the November estimate. Key exporters such as Argentina, Brazil, and Canada are projected to see stable or slightly higher export figures, driven by improved supplies.
Soybean meal exports are forecast to grow, especially from Argentina, as the country's crush capacity is raised to 41 million metric tons. The European Union, Algeria, and Iran are expected to import more soybean meal, supporting the overall growth in global trade. Soybean oil exports are also projected to rise to 12.6 million metric tons, driven by higher shipments from Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S.
For soybean oil, production in the U.S. has been raised to 28.6 billion pounds due to higher extraction rates. U.S. soybean oil exports are now forecast at 1.1 billion pounds, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 600 million pounds. The increase reflects strong global demand for biofuels and industrial applications.
Soybean meal production is forecast at 56.7 million short tons, with exports rising to 17.4 million short tons. This increase in global meal exports is expected to meet rising import demand from markets like the EU, Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela. The price of soybean meal has been lowered to $300 per short ton, reflecting competitive pressures in the global market.
The U.S. season-average soybean price has been revised down to $10.20 per bushel, down from $10.80 in November. This price reduction reflects competitive market conditions and stable supply levels. The forecast for soybean meal prices has also been reduced to $300 per short ton. Meanwhile, the soybean oil price remains steady at 43 cents per pound.
Despite these price adjustments, global soybean consumption is projected to grow marginally, driven by rising demand for soybean meal and oil in key import markets. However, demand growth remains subdued in China and Europe, two of the largest consumers of soybeans.
The December USDA WASDE report paints a balanced picture for the 2024/25 soybean market. Production gains, higher export projections, and stable domestic use offer support to the soybean complex. However, pricing pressures and challenges in key demand markets suggest that global trade and policy developments will play a significant role in shaping the soybean market’s trajectory moving forward.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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