MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - The satellite images of later part of June 2016 showing the sugarcane acreage across the country was procured by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) and after detailed analysis, it was estimated the total sugarcane acreage of the country in the 2016-17 sugar season, which begins from October 2016, would be around 49.91 lakh hectare (hectares), which is about 5.5 percent less than last year.
As per the satellite images, Uttar Pradesh, the leading sugarcane producing state in the country, is estimated to have a slightly higher area under sugarcane at 23.35 lakh hectares, as against 23.02 lakh hectares. last year. ISMA is expecting a better yield in 2016-17 SS due to a substantial increase in area under the high yielding cane variety CO0238. That will increase the sugarcane production and availability for crushing by sugar mills.
Further, unlike Maharashtra and North Karnataka, the weather hectares been good in Uttar Pradesh with adequate rainfall. Thus, sugar production in the state is estimated to be around 75.40 lakh tonnes as against 68.22 lakh tonnes a year ago.
The other major sugar producing state, viz. Maharashtra cane area hectares declined in 2016-17, which is mainly due to drought like situation last year, poor rainfall and lesser water availability for irrigation. As against the cane area of 10.5 lakh hectares. in 2015-16, area is expected to come down to 7.80 lakh hectares in 2016-17. Sugar production is, therefore, estimated to be around 61.5 lakh tonnes in 2016-17, as against 84.08 lakh tonnes produced in 2015-16.
Similar to Maharashtra due to lesser rainfall and drought like situation, sugarcane area in Karnataka hectares also declined in 2016-17. Area under sugarcane is likely to be about 4.15 lakh hectares as against 5.10 lakh hectares in 2015-16. Sugar production in 2016-17 is estimated to be around 32.2 lakh tonnes versus 40.71 lakh tonnes expected to be produced in 2015-16.
Sugarcane area in Tamil Nadu hectares increased to 2.65 lakh hectares as against 2.50 lakh hectares last year. Due to better rainfall and expected improvement in yield, sugarcane production will also increase, resulting in better sugar production of 15.6 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 as against 13.93 lakh tonnes produced in 2015-16.
India's sugar production as on June 30, 2016 of the current sugar season 2015-16 is estimated around 248.15 lakh tonnes and another 2.75 lakh tonnes is likely to be produced in the special season till September, 2016 in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, taking total sugar production in 2015-16 to 251 lakh tonnes. During Oct-May 2015-16, about 169 lakh tonnes hectares been dispatched and another 85-86 lakh tonnes is expected to be dispatched by mills. With expected sugar exports of 15 lakh tonnes in current season, the closing balance would be 71 lakh tonnes.
As per above, ISMA estimates production of 232.6 lakh tonnes of sugar in the season 2016-17. This is about 18-19 lakh tonnes less than the current 2015-16 SS production of around 251 lakh tonnes.
With an estimated opening balance on 1st Oct, 2016 of 71 lakh tonnes, and estimated production of 232.6 lakh tonnes, the sugar availability during the 12 months of next season will be 303.6 lakh tonnes, enough to meet the domestic sugar consumption requirement of 260 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
For the sugar season 2017-18, the opening balance of about 43 lakh tonnes as on 1st October 2017, will be sufficient to meet the country’s domestic requirement for the two months of October-November, 2017 next to next year, during which time new season’s sugar production including the sugar produced in October-November 2017, would have comfortably come into the market.
The above is a preliminary estimate of sugarcane and sugar production in 2016-17. After considering rainfall in July – September, 2016, which is already expected to be above normal, water situation in reservoirs and second set of satellite images in September 2016 for across India, ISMA will review the analysis in end of September, 2016 and will release their 1st advance estimates for 2016-17 season. By that time, the crop will be more mature and there will be more clarity on the rainfall and water availability.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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