USDA estimates 2024-25 global soybean production at 422.26 million tonnes, up 6.4%
NEW DELHI, May 10 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest May 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged global soybean production in 2024-25 at 422.26 million tonnes, compared to 396.95 million tonnes in 2023-24.
The 2024/25 global oilseed outlook shows higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2023/24.
Global production is rising 28.9 million tons to 687.1 million mainly on higher soybean production for South America, the United States, and South Africa.
Brazil’s soybean production is forecast at 169.0 million tons, up from the revised 2023/24 crop of 154.0 million, which was reduced due to flooding in Rio Grande do Sul.
Argentina’s soybean output is forecast at 51.0 million tons for 2024/25. Global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is nearly flat compared to the prior year as higher sunflowerseed production for the EU and rapeseed production for Canada and Australia is mostly offset by lower rapeseed production for the EU, Ukraine, India, and the UK.
Global 2024/25 oilseed crush is growing 17.3 million tons to 560.8 million from 2023/24, with most of the growth for soybeans (15.9 million) mainly for Argentina, China, Pakistan, and the United States.
Global sunflowerseed and rapeseed crush is flat on stable available supplies. Soybean meal exports account for the majority of meal export growth. Lower year-over-year exports of sunflowerseed oil and rapeseed oil are mostly offset by growth in soybean, palm, and palm kernel oil shipments.
Global soybean exports for 2024/25 are increasing 4 percent from last marketing year mainly on higher soybean exports for the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Soybean imports are higher for China, Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, Iran, and Vietnam. China’s soybean imports are rising 4.0 million tons to 109.0 million on larger global supplies and lower prices.
Global 2024/25 soybean ending stocks are projected up 16.7 million tons to 128.5 million, with most of the increase for Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and China.
The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2023/24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield.
With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8 percent from 2023/24.
Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 131.2 million tons, up 8.9 million from 2023/24 on higher soybean, cottonseed, and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed.
U.S. soybean crush for 2024/25 is projected at 2.43 billion bushels, up 125 million from the 2023/24 forecast on higher demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, projected to increase 1.0 billion pounds to 14.0 billion.
Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 3 percent from 2023/24 on increased pork and poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 17.3 million short tons, indicating a 21 percent share of global trade, compared to the prior 5-year average of 19 percent.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.83 billion bushels, up 125 million from 2023/24 with higher exports this fall due to a lower Brazilian 2024 harvest. With strong seasonal exports after harvest followed by pressure from larger South American production in 2025, the U.S. share of global exports is forecast at 28 percent, down from the prior 5-year average of 32 percent.
U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up 105 million from last year.
The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023/24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2023/24.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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