Mumbai, 22 Jun (Commoditiescontrol): Crude oil futures remained largely unchanged on Friday but achieved their second consecutive weekly gain due to signs of increased demand and declining oil and fuel inventories in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.On Friday, WTI crude oil futures settled 0.15% lower at $80.54 per barrel. Brent futures ended 0.12% lower at $84.39 a barrel.
In a noteworthy development, the price differential between Russian Urals crude oil and dated Brent remained stable. This metric is particularly significant as India, the primary buyer of Russian Urals, set a new record in May by increasing its imports to approximately 2.1 million barrels per day, according to trade sources and shipping data.
Meanwhile, Russian energy giant Gazprom, which recently reported an annual loss of $7 billion, has ramped up its oil trading activities to compensate for weaker natural gas sales over the past year, according to insiders familiar with the company's operations.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), crude futures have surged nearly 6% in June. This follows an early June dip, where futures briefly fell below their rising 200-week moving average (WMA) for the first time in three and a half years. Despite this, the 200-WMA, currently around $76.40, has remained a strong support level throughout 2023 and into 2024. The recent rebound saw futures climb above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $79.42 and the 50-WMA at $79.80, pushing prices just over $81.00.
Looking ahead, the next resistance level is around $84.00, marked by a trend line from the March 2022 high, with the early-April peak at $87.67 also being a significant target. Weekly momentum indicators, such as the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI), are rising, but have struggled to surpass the 70.00 overbought threshold since mid-March 2022, indicating ongoing bear-market conditions.
A decline in futures below $79.42 could once again test the 200-WMA support, with the early June low at $72.48 as a potential fallback point.
In related market movements, the S&P 500 energy sector has faced a sharp decline since hitting record highs in early April. The sector index closed at 684.65 on Thursday, down over 3% this month and about 10% from its early-April peak of 756.56. A breakout in crude futures above resistance levels could potentially revitalize the sector, though it faces several technical hurdles above the 700 mark.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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