La Nia to Influence Monsoon Patterns; Rain Expected in Delhi by Late June

MUMBAI, 18 Jun (Commoditiescontrol): India may face a rain shortfall in June, with La Niña conditions anticipated to prevail in the latter half of July, according to Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet. Despite the initial dry spell, monsoon activity is expected to pick up in September and October, providing much-needed relief to the agricultural sector, Palawat told CNBC-Awaaz in an interview.

"June may experience a shortage of rainfall, but La Niña conditions will influence weather patterns in the second half of July," said Palawat. "Monsoon activity is forecast to improve significantly in September and October."

The early weeks of June have already shown below-average rainfall, raising concerns for farmers who rely heavily on the monsoon for crop irrigation. The monsoon typically starts in the south around June 1 and spreads across the country by July 8. However, this year's delayed and weaker onset has disrupted the usual agricultural cycle.

In addition to the broader monsoon forecast, Palawat highlighted specific weather patterns for the capital. "Rain is possible in Delhi on June 27-28," he noted, offering a glimmer of hope for the region that has been grappling with higher-than-normal temperatures and dry conditions.

The La Niña phenomenon, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, often impacts global weather patterns, including the Indian monsoon. Historically, La Niña has been associated with both beneficial and adverse effects on the monsoon, sometimes leading to above-average rainfall but also causing regional droughts.

This year's forecast comes amidst growing concerns over climate change and its impact on weather predictability. Farmers and policymakers are closely monitoring the situation, as the monsoon season is critical for India's nearly $3.5 trillion economy, which heavily depends on agriculture. Nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season, replenishing reservoirs and aquifers and supporting the cultivation of key crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.

As the country braces for potential fluctuations in monsoon activity, the government and agricultural sectors are preparing for both short-term challenges and long-term strategies to mitigate the impact of unpredictable weather patterns.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 3018)